The Urban Train of Puerto Rico: Will it Run in the Long run?

    The "Tren Urbano" is a heavy-rail system which cost some $2.2 billion, more that doubling the expected $1 billion initially estimated.  This cost overrun has been highly criticized in the press, but it is to be noted that projects of this scale do tend to suffer from cost overruns.  Perhaps the valid question is whether it is a viable project for an economy of its scale, typically asphyxiated by bureaucratic gigantism as William Reifkohl recently pointed out. (San Juan Star, March 2, 2005)   The first railroads in England were not designed to carry people but were principally established for the transportation of goods, hence were driven by a 'pure' economic rationality.  When Peru built its first trains during the guano boom period at mid century, it failed to incorporate a strict economic criteria upon identifying its endpoints.  When the nitrogen-rich droppings were depleted and the boom period ended, the train went nowhere.  We only hope the planners did their homework and used sound judgment.  Only time will till if it was a good decision or not.