WIDE AND SHALLOW: DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY AND THE POST-2007 FERTILITY DECLINE
WIDE AND SHALLOW: DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY AND THE POST-2007 FERTILITY DECLINE
NATHAN HUDSON AND HERNAN MOSCOSO BOEDO
Source: Hernan J. Moscoso Boedo (University of Cincinnati)
Fertility has fallen sharply across the high-income world since 2007, with the OECD
median total fertility rate falling from 1.71 to 1.44. We propose that the digital
revolution lowered the relative cost of broad over deep social connections, eroding
the relational capital that enters partnership formation, divorce, and fertility jointly.
A calibrated dynamic household-production model reproduces the observed US
children-per-adult decline; a counterfactual freezing the relative phone price at its
2007 level accounts for 43 percent. Applied without re-calibration, the model matches
the median OECD country’s observed decline. Two terrain-ruggedness IV designs
identify the mechanism causally.
Cont'd.
LINK:
https://homepages.uc.edu/~moscoshn/Personal_webpage/papers/Wide_Shallow_web.pdf